Saturday, October 25, 2008
Do you have a 401k plan? You might not for long.....
October 23, 2008 10:47 AM ET James Pethokoukis Permanent Link Print
I hate to use the "S" word, but the American government would never do something as, well, socialist as seize private pension funds, right? This is exactly what cash-strapped Argentina just did in the name of protecting workers' retirement accounts (Efharisto, Fausta's Blog). Now, even Uncle Sam isn't that stupid, but some Democrats might try something almost as loopy: kill 401(k) plans.
House Democrats recently invited Teresa Ghilarducci, a professor at the New School of Social Research, to testify before a subcommittee on her idea to eliminate the preferential tax treatment of the popular retirement plans. In place of 401(k) plans, she would have workers transfer their dough into government-created "guaranteed retirement accounts" for every worker. The government would deposit $600 (inflation indexed) every year into the GRAs. Each worker would also have to save 5 percent of pay into the accounts, to which the government would pay a measly 3 percent return. Rep. Jim McDermott, a Democrat from Washington and chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee's Subcommittee on Income Security and Family Support, said that since "the savings rate isn't going up for the investment of $80 billion [in 401(k) tax breaks], we have to start to think about whether or not we want to continue to invest that $80 billion for a policy that's not generating what we now say it should."
A few respectful observations:
1) McDermott is right when he says the savings rate isn't going up. But the savings rate doesn't include gains to money you invest in the stock market. It ignores the buildup of net worth. (If you bought a share of XYZ Corp. in January at $100, for instance, and its value doubled by December, the savings rate measure would still value that investment at $100. In short, the savings rate is a phony number.)
2) So based partly on the above faulty logic, the $4.5 trillion, as of the start of the year, invested in 401(k) plans doesn't count as savings.
3) Ghilarducci would have workers abandon the stock market right at the bottom of the market. A stupid idea, according to Warren Buffett: "I don't like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I'll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: 'Put your mouth where your money was.' Today my money and my mouth both say equities."
4) Ghilarducci would offer a lousy 3 percent return. The long-run return of the stock market, adjusted for inflation, is more like 7 percent. Look at it this way: Ten thousand dollars growing at 3 percent a year for 40 years leaves you with roughly $22,000. But $10,000 growing at 7 percent a year for 40 years leaves you with $150,000. That is a high price to pay for what Ghilarducci describes as the removal of "a source of financial anxiety and...fruitless discussions with brokers and financial sales agents, who are also desperate for more fees and are often wrong about markets." Please, I'll take a bit of worry for an additional $128,000.
5) What effect would this plan have on an already battered stock market? Well, I would imagine it would send it even lower, sticking a shiv into the portfolios of everyone who didn't jump aboard. But I am sure the Chinese would love to jump in and buy all our cheap stocks to fund the retirement of their citizens.
My bottom line: If you believe in the long-run dynamism of the American economy, then you have to believe in the stock market. Listen to superinvestor Buffett, not the prof from the New School.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
A Liberal Majority - taken from the Wallstreet Journal
If the current polls hold, Barack Obama will win the White House on November 4 and Democrats will consolidate their Congressional majorities, probably with a filibuster-proof Senate or very close to it. Without the ability to filibuster, the Senate would become like the House, able to pass whatever the majority wants.
AP
Though we doubt most Americans realize it, this would be one of the most profound political and ideological shifts in U.S. history. Liberals would dominate the entire government in a way they haven't since 1965, or 1933. In other words, the election would mark the restoration of the activist government that fell out of public favor in the 1970s. If the U.S. really is entering a period of unchecked left-wing ascendancy, Americans at least ought to understand what they will be getting, especially with the media cheering it all on.
The nearby table shows the major bills that passed the House this year or last before being stopped by the Senate minority. Keep in mind that the most important power of the filibuster is to shape legislation, not merely to block it. The threat of 41 committed Senators can cause the House to modify its desires even before legislation comes to a vote. Without that restraining power, all of the following have very good chances of becoming law in 2009 or 2010.
- Medicare for all. When HillaryCare cratered in 1994, the Democrats concluded they had overreached, so they carved up the old agenda into smaller incremental steps, such as Schip for children. A strongly Democratic Congress is now likely to lay the final flagstones on the path to government-run health insurance from cradle to grave.
Mr. Obama wants to build a public insurance program, modeled after Medicare and open to everyone of any income. According to the Lewin Group, the gold standard of health policy analysis, the Obama plan would shift between 32 million and 52 million from private coverage to the huge new entitlement. Like Medicare or the Canadian system, this would never be repealed.
The commitments would start slow, so as not to cause immediate alarm. But as U.S. health-care spending flowed into the default government options, taxes would have to rise or services would be rationed, or both. Single payer is the inevitable next step, as Mr. Obama has already said is his ultimate ideal.
Editorial-page writer Joe Rago explains just how bad it could get in 2009. (Oct. 21)
- The business climate. "We have some harsh decisions to make," Speaker Nancy Pelosi warned recently, speaking about retribution for the financial panic. Look for a replay of the Pecora hearings of the 1930s, with Henry Waxman, John Conyers and Ed Markey sponsoring ritual hangings to further their agenda to control more of the private economy. The financial industry will get an overhaul in any case, but telecom, biotech and drug makers, among many others, can expect to be investigated and face new, more onerous rules. See the "Issues and Legislation" tab on Mr. Waxman's Web site for a not-so-brief target list.
The danger is that Democrats could cause the economic downturn to last longer than it otherwise will by enacting regulatory overkill like Sarbanes-Oxley. Something more punitive is likely as well, for instance a windfall profits tax on oil, and maybe other industries.
- Union supremacy. One program certain to be given right of way is "card check." Unions have been in decline for decades, now claiming only 7.4% of the private-sector work force, so Big Labor wants to trash the secret-ballot elections that have been in place since the 1930s. The "Employee Free Choice Act" would convert workplaces into union shops merely by gathering signatures from a majority of employees, which means organizers could strongarm those who opposed such a petition.
The bill also imposes a compulsory arbitration regime that results in an automatic two-year union "contract" after 130 days of failed negotiation. The point is to force businesses to recognize a union whether the workers support it or not. This would be the biggest pro-union shift in the balance of labor-management power since the Wagner Act of 1935.
- Taxes. Taxes will rise substantially, the only question being how high. Mr. Obama would raise the top income, dividend and capital-gains rates for "the rich," substantially increasing the cost of new investment in the U.S. More radically, he wants to lift or eliminate the cap on income subject to payroll taxes that fund Medicare and Social Security. This would convert what was meant to be a pension insurance program into an overt income redistribution program. It would also impose a probably unrepealable increase in marginal tax rates, and a permanent shift upward in the federal tax share of GDP.
- The green revolution. A tax-and-regulation scheme in the name of climate change is a top left-wing priority. Cap and trade would hand Congress trillions of dollars in new spending from the auction of carbon credits, which it would use to pick winners and losers in the energy business and across the economy. Huge chunks of GDP and millions of jobs would be at the mercy of Congress and a vast new global-warming bureaucracy. Without the GOP votes to help stage a filibuster, Senators from carbon-intensive states would have less ability to temper coastal liberals who answer to the green elites.
- Free speech and voting rights. A liberal supermajority would move quickly to impose procedural advantages that could cement Democratic rule for years to come. One early effort would be national, election-day voter registration. This is a long-time goal of Acorn and others on the "community organizer" left and would make it far easier to stack the voter rolls. The District of Columbia would also get votes in Congress -- Democratic, naturally.
Felons may also get the right to vote nationwide, while the Fairness Doctrine is likely to be reimposed either by Congress or the Obama FCC. A major goal of the supermajority left would be to shut down talk radio and other voices of political opposition.
- Special-interest potpourri. Look for the watering down of No Child Left Behind testing standards, as a favor to the National Education Association. The tort bar's ship would also come in, including limits on arbitration to settle disputes and watering down the 1995 law limiting strike suits. New causes of legal action would be sprinkled throughout most legislation. The anti-antiterror lobby would be rewarded with the end of Guantanamo and military commissions, which probably means trying terrorists in civilian courts. Google and MoveOn.org would get "net neutrality" rules, subjecting the Internet to intrusive regulation for the first time.
It's always possible that events -- such as a recession -- would temper some of these ambitions. Republicans also feared the worst in 1993 when Democrats ran the entire government, but it didn't turn out that way. On the other hand, Bob Dole then had 43 GOP Senators to support a filibuster, and the entire Democratic Party has since moved sharply to the left. Mr. Obama's agenda is far more liberal than Bill Clinton's was in 1992, and the Southern Democrats who killed Al Gore's BTU tax and modified liberal ambitions are long gone.
In both 1933 and 1965, liberal majorities imposed vast expansions of government that have never been repealed, and the current financial panic may give today's left another pretext to return to those heydays of welfare-state liberalism. Americans voting for "change" should know they may get far more than they ever imagined.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
My brother in law and sister put in a huge pond this summer. He designed it and did all the work too, placing the rocks just so. It took him nearly 2 months to complete the pond itself , and landscaping will be done next spring. It took a week to fill the thing, and within another week algae was growing. The water is crystal clear, but they have a string algae problem that will need to be treated very soon. It is a fabulous water feature with two huge waterfalls. I hope to put some pictures up soon. Madison just loved it, and went swimming in it before the weather turned too cool.
Steve's birthday is coming up this month and I am raking my brain for gift ideas. What do you buy someone who has nearly everything? I think men are so hard to buy for.
I hope you are all having a good day. See you tomorrow.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Chicago Annenberg Challenge
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MTgwZTVmN2QyNzk2MmUxMzA5OTg0ODZlM2Y2OGI0NDM=
Birds of a Feather
My blessed mother was very interested in politics and all through my childhood I remember hearing her discuss the different agendas of the day with family and friends. Perhaps that is why my sister and I are so interested. It certainly made us more aware of our world and this wonderful country we live in.
I am appalled by the flippant attitude of the left. They have used the same old defense mechanisms for years. When questioned about Obama's involvement with people like William Ayers the defense is: "Obama was 8 years old when Ayers bombed the Pentagon." Well Obama wasn't 8 years when he started a long term working relationship with this domestic terrorist. He wasn't 8 years old when he launched his political career out of Ayer's livingroom. He wasn't 8 years old when Ayers maintained that he was not sorry for what he did. In fact he doesn't feel he did enough!
I learned at an early age that birds of a feather flock together; that you are judged by the company you keep. So what are the people of the United States thinking? This (among other grievances) is a travisty of justice!
If you are on the fence about this election please do not vote for a 3rd party. You will be wasting your vote. We know that one of the two major parties will win. I will honest in saying that McCain was not my pick for the Republican ticket, but given the alternative I have no choice but to vote for him and trust that he will do the better job.
I hope that when you go to the polls next month that you do some research before you cast your vote. Don't be a sheeple. You, your children and grandchildren may live to seriously regret it.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Along with all those mild tempertures the Pacific Northwest enjoys, we also have our downside. And of course that is the rain. The state of Washington has it's very own rain forest! Just north of me is the Olympic National Forest which receives on average 140 inches of rain a year! Amazing isn't it? But it is still less than the Amazon receives. In southwest Washington, where I live, we receive about an average of 37" a year. Talk about a green state! So while you are shoveling snow, we are donning umbrellas for at least 6 months out of the year.
Regardless of where we live in this beautiful country of ours we are all blessed beyond our wildest imaginations.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
New Beginnings
I am now officially retired - whatever that means. I was severed from my job after 26 years on June 27th of this year. After a nice little severence package and fairly decent pension I am on to a new chapter in my life. And I am still not sure what that will entail either. Stick around, I'm sure the best is yet to come.
I was blessed with another granddaughter in August. Her name is Reegan Marie. There was much fuss about the name - in fact my son and daughter in law waited until the day she was coming home to name her, because they couldn't agree on what it should be. Danelle won out on the first name - after all, she did have to go through the C-section! Steve picked the middle name - named after my mom's middle name, which I thought was so sweet. My mother would be so honored that he did that. Reegan is a beautiful baby with a full head of dark brown hair just like her mom. She literally looks like a doll. And such a good baby too! No colic or excessive crying. She is the exact opposite of my darling Madison, who is now 5 years old. How the time flies when you're having fun!
Katie Rose and Sophie Jo (my two Westies) are doing fine and thriving on my home cooking. They love Madison! You should see them all running through my backyard when Madison comes to visit. I will always say that a Westie is one of the best dogs for kids - but be prepared for grooming if you decide to buy one.
I will close today simply stating that it is good to be back blogging, as I have missed it and all of you for sometime now.
Wishing you all a blessed day!
Tuesday, August 16, 2005
ANIMAL WARNING!
DENVER, CO -- Tele is a 7-month-old Golden Retriever who loves treats. So, when 2-year-old Jordan started feeding her mints, she loved it.
"I was standing right there as my 2-year-old is handing one mint for him, one mint for me type of game and it was literally six mints later that we started seeing signs," said Lindsey Davis, Jordan's mom.
Within 15 minutes of eating six mints, Tele was having seizures and vomiting.
Davis took her to Aspenwood Animal Hospital on Colorado Boulevard. Dr. Julie Kelly said when Tele got there, "she was basically in a type of a coma."
A frantic call to Animal Poison Control revealed that Tele was being
poisoned by Xylitol. "It is an artificial sweetener that is in sugarless
chewing gums and mints and some household baking products," said Kelly. "It is life threatening to dogs. They can die very quickly."
She says veterinarians are seeing more cases of Xylitol poisoning. "We are starting to see these animals that are getting into people's purses or their children are giving them treats and dogs like to eat anything they
can," said Kelly. Davis wants to warn other dog owners.
"The compound is as close as a hands reach of the check out stand so people need to know that this is toxic to dogs," she said.
Tele is back home and feeling better but the vet says she still needs to be watched closely to make sure there isn't any permanent liver damage.
Tuesday, April 19, 2005
Just a thought..........
Once again in my lifetime I am witness to the election of a new pope. It is exciting to realize the history that we have lived through today. All of the pomp and circumstance will be recorded in history books and people who come generations after us will read it as it unfolded. And we, you and I lived it! It almost seems a bit surreal.
It was with great sadness that I bid Pope John Paul II goodbye on April 2, 2005 as did the rest of the world, especially my fellow Catholics. In my mind, Pope John Paul II was truly my loving and gracious father. It was with a bit of irony and more sadness that I realized that 20 years ago to the day my biological father had died.
Pope John Paul II was a humble man from humble beginnings, one who was looked up to by so many, and idolized for his strength and wisdom. He will be missed and it is doubtful that anyone will ever be able to fill his shoes the way he did.
I was actually hoping for a younger pope. One with a more open attitude toward the church and the world at large. I am saddened by this new pope's open and judgemental attitude toward gays, and his not surprising opinion of women priests. (I am still trying to make my mind up about that one too, but certainly I am open minded to some extent.)
I wish our new pope well. I wish him a long and happy life. I wish him much success. Given his advanced age though, I wonder how much he will be able to accomplish in the short time he will have? It is with most certainty that he will not accomplish the multitude of things Pope John Paul II did.
One can only watch and pray that the Lord moves him in the right direction for the church and mankind.
Wednesday, April 13, 2005
The Old Phone
When I was quite young, my father had one of the first telephones in our neighborhood. I remember the polished, old case fastened to the wall. The
shiny receiver hung on the side of the box. I was too little to reach the telephone, but used to listen with fascination when my mother talked to it.
Then I discovered that somewhere inside the wonderful device lived an amazing person. Her name was "Information Please" and there was nothing she
did not know. Information Please could supply anyone's number and the correct time. My personal experience with the genie-in-a-bottle came one day while my mother was visiting a neighbor. Amusing myself at the tool bench in the basement, I whacked my finger with a
hammer, the pain was terrible, but there seemed no point in crying because there was no one home to give sympathy.
I walked around the house sucking my throbbing finger, finally arriving at the stairway. The telephone! Quickly, I ran for the footstool in the parlor and dragged it to the landing. Climbing up, I unhooked the receiver
in the parlor and held it to my ear. "Information, please" I said into the mouthpiece just above my head. A click or two and a small clear voice spoke into my ear.
"Information."
"My name is John and I hurt my finger..." I wailed into the phone, the tears came readily enough now that I had an audience.
"Isn't your mother home?" came the question.
"Nobody's home but me," I blubbered.
"Are you bleeding?" the voice asked.
"No," I replied. "I hit my finger with the hammer and it hurts."
"Can you open the icebox?" she asked.
I said I could.
"Then chip off a little bit of ice and hold it to your finger," said the voice.
After that, I called "Information Please" for everything.
I asked her for help with my geography, and she told me where Philadelphia was. She helped me with my math. She told me my pet chipmunk that I had
caught in the park just the day before, would eat fruit and nuts.
Then, there was the time Petey, our pet canary, died. I called, Information Please," and told her the sad story. She listened, and then said things grown-ups say to soothe a child. But I was not consoled.
I asked her, "Why is it that birds should sing so beautifully and bring joy to all families, only to end up as a heap of feathers on the bottom of a cage?"
She must have sensed my deep concern, for she said quietly, "John, always remember that there are other worlds to sing in."
Somehow I felt better.
Another day I was on the telephone, "Information Please."
"Information," said in the now familiar voice.
"How do I spell fix?" I asked.
All this took place in a small town in the Pacific Northwest. When I was nine years old, we moved across the country to Boston. I missed my friend
very much. "Information Please" belonged in that old wooden box back home and I somehow never thought of trying the shiny new phone that sat on the table in the hall. As I grew into my teens, the memories of those childhood conversations never really left me. Often, in moments of doubt and perplexity I would recall the serene sense of security I had then. I
appreciated now how patient, understanding, and kind she was to have spent her time on a little boy.
A few years later, on my way west to college, my plane put down in Seattle. I had about a half-hour or so between planes. I spent 15 minutes or so on the phone with my sister, who lived there now. Then without thinking what I was doing, I dialed my hometown operator and said, "Information Please."
Miraculously, I heard the small, clear voice I knew so well.
"Information."
I hadn't planned this, but I heard myself saying, "Could you please tell me how to spell fix?"
There was a long pause. Then came the soft spoken answer, "I guess your finger must have healed by now."
I laughed, "So it's really you," I said. "I wonder if you have any idea how much you meant to me during that time?"
I wonder," she said, "if you know how much your call meant to me. I never had any children and I used to look forward to your calls."
I told her how often I had thought of her over the years and I asked if I could call her again when I came back to visit my sister.
"Please do", she said. "Just ask for Sally."
Three months later I was back in Seattle. A different voice answered, "Information." I asked for Sally.
"Are you a friend?" she said.
"Yes,my name is John and I am a very old friend," I answered.
"I'm sorry to have to tell you this," she said. "Sally had been working part-time the last few years because she was sick. She died five weeks ago."
Before I could hang up she said, "Wait a minute, did you say your name was John?"
"Yes." I answered.
"Well, Sally left a message for you. She wrote it down in case you called. Let me read it to you."
The note said, "Tell him there are other worlds to sing in. He'll know what I mean."
I thanked her and hung up. I knew what Sally meant.
Monday, April 11, 2005
She may be the devil's spawn, but she is the love of my life!
Danelle (my daughter-in-law) sent this email to me at work one day last week. I thought you all would get a chuckle or two out of it! :)
Morning Robyn!
I hope your morning went better then mine…..
So our appraiser is supposed to come today at 1 pm and I decide to pick up the bbq cover and put it on the beast and do a few other little things this morning in the backyard…When I reach the glass patio door just as I'm about to open it Madi (the devils spawn she is) has just finished pushing down the latch and has locked me out of the house…….I"M LOCKED OUT…so I try beating the glass showing my lovely daughter how to pull the latch up through the glass….she just stares at me like I'm a alien…so I beat on the glass some more she actually touches the latch and then decides toys are way cooler then mommy looking like a fool on the back patio….I proceed to trek around to the front yard in my ultra stylish PJ's which I'm still in since I wasn't planning on anyone but my daughter seeing me for the next hour or so….I proceed to punch the codes into the garage door remote nothing happens I try again…nothing so I pop open the battery door WOW no battery go figure…Then I start looking anywhere for a key around the house of course no key because that would be to simple….I head to the next door neighbors rang the doorbell no answer checked their garage door remote for a 9volt battery but of course theirs is behind a screw which would require me to have a screwdriver…let me check my pink pjs and red slippers for that! We all know the answer there….so I go back to the house and I realize Steve's car is unlocked hmm there might be something in there lets hope…wrong again NOTHING…so as I'm getting out of the car and my humility sinks in that I'm going to have to go to the model home in pjs and red slippers I see a neighbor shaving on the front porch. Is he my savior? Let's hope. I walk to his house and ask him if he has a 9 volt battery he goes and looks and doesn't have one. HOLY CRAP my luck is unbelievable this morning! He then proceeds to ask me what I need it for so I explain that I went into the backyard and apparently my almost 2 year old daughter has learned to the lock the door. So he says he might have a master key forthe locks which could work and he ripped a 9 volt out of his fire alarm so with keys in hand and a battery I go back to the house?Try the keys no luck?.put the battery into the remote garage door opener and pray the code hasn't been lost because NO FRICKING BATTERY WAS IN THERE?.I type the code in and the garage popped open WOOO HOOOO I'm saved?.so how is your morning!
Danelle said that she was locked out for a total of about 30 minutes. Her house is completely child proof so she wasn't worried too much, but when she did get back in she found Madison standing in the middle of the family room, sucking on her fingers like she does just before she starts to cry. Guess a 30 minute vacation from mom was almost too long! hehe Needless to say that garage door opener has a new 9 volt battery now!
Sunday, April 3, 2005
This past week has been one of sadness for much of the world. First the passing of Terri Schaivo, the 41 year old disabled woman from Florida. Then the passing of Pope John Paul II. It saddens me personally for the loss of both of these people, although the reasons are very different and obvious.
May they both rest in peace with the Lord.
In addition, I have found myself drawn to the Laci Peterson case. I have read BLOOD BROTHER written by Scott Peterson's sister, and now I am reading WITNESS by Amber Frey. Both are well written books by opposite sides of the fence, however both women are drawn to the same conclusion that Scott Peterson did kill his darling wife Laci, and their unborn child Connor. After reading both Anne and Amber's accounts, I have found that they are both endearing young women who were thrown into an impossible situation and somehow endured the unthinkable.
Good reading for a wet weekend.
Wishing you all a peaceful week.
Friday, April 1, 2005
Daily Affirmation
things, to win glorious triumphs,
even though checkered by failure...
than to rank with those
poor spirits who neither enjoy much
nor suffer much,
because they live in a gray twilight that
knows not victory nor defeat.
Theodore Roosevelt